Performance
FREDO is running on paper. Every position it takes is published here as it closes — winners and losers alike, with no selection. Nothing has closed yet.
| Details | Date | Player | Market | Side | Stake | Entry | Exit | Fees | P&L | Result |
|---|
How this is reported
- Every trade published, winners and losers, with no selection.
- Stake, entry and exit shown for each position.
- Taken from the system's own trade log, with fees already deducted.
- Paper-traded results are clearly marked as simulated until trading is live.
Almost everyone is playing the wrong game
The crowded question
Nearly every model built for sports markets asks who wins. It is the most researched question in the field, contested by well-resourced firms, and the remaining edge is thin and expensive to hold.
Winning that argument means out-forecasting the whole market on the game itself.
The question we ask
When a recognised starter is ruled out, the market reprices. That move is a crowd reacting to an announcement — its size is a property of attention and perception, not of the game.
FREDO forecasts the direction and magnitude of that repricing and enters ahead of the crowd. It exits when the move comes in, or holds the position to the result.
We are not trying to be right about the game. We are trying to be early to the reaction.
Every trade published
Winners and losers alike, with no selection.
Early or not at all
If the move has already happened, there is no trade.
Hard limits
Ceilings on every position that the system cannot cross.
No discretion
Nothing is opened or closed by hand.